By Bruce Farr
California’s recent air-quality legislation—an ambitious timetable aimed at reducing carbon-bearing greenhouse gas emissions—is generating many questions, and having a polarizing effect on many state residents, companies and organizations, both for and against the new law. Regardless of their arguments pro or con, both sides of the debate agree that the new regulations will reshape California’s economy; alter how Californians’ vehicles, buildings and appliances are powered; and, at its best, serve as a blueprint for other states and countries to follow.
Carbon-free future
Under Advanced Clean Cars II (ACCII), all vehicles sold in the state beginning with 2035 models must be zero-emission, namely electric, hydrogen-fueled or plug-in hybrid.California has often been a leader in progressive legislation and policies, some of which have become nation-leading movements—and this could become one, too. As California Governor Gavin Newsome’s office describes it, “The State of California is committed to achieving a just and equitable transition to carbon neutrality by 2045.”
With climate change such a hot topic, the air-quality bylaws have evolved into a national referendum on the topic. The legislation is sparking debate on both sides of the issue, with one faction cheering it from an “it’s about time” point of view, while other voices argue that the legislation is too aggressive and the 2035 timetable unreasonable in its goals.
Auto civilization
There’s a reason why gas-powered cars and trucks are such a critical carbon-emissions target in the state. In 2021, California had more automotive registration filings than any state in the nation. In that year alone, almost 14.3 million vehicles were registered in the state and, what’s more, California has the highest number of registered motor vehicles overall: nearly 31.4 million. With these numbers, it’s clear why automobiles and trucks are the state’s leading source of air pollution, and why they’re the target of those who are attempting to curtail it.
California’s joined-at-the-hip relationship with gas-powered automotive vehicles is as long-term as it is legendary. The state has long been an epicenter for automobiles, showcasing the sweeping influence they’ve had on everyday life. Literature from the state’s Capitol Museum, in fact, refers to California as the world’s first “auto civilization,” and goes on to say, “No form of transportation has had a greater impact on shaping the landscape of the Golden State than the automobile.”
Gas: A thing of the past?
One of the most pressing questions about the new mandate: What will become of the hundreds of thousands of gas-powered vehicles on the road after the 2035 deadline? On that point, car owners don’t have to worry. Vehicles with internal combustion engines will be grandfathered in and still be permitted to operate after 2035.
With the average lifespan of a car in the U.S. pegged at about 12 years, there will be a need for gasoline for decades beyond the deadline. Still, that demand is expected to decline dramatically.
But the fuel shift poses another major challenge. The alteration from gas-powered to alternatively fueled vehicles will correspondingly reduce the demand for fossil fuels, a development that will ripple through the state’s entire economy.
For one, what will become of the state’s plethora of gas stations? After all, fuel stations have been a small-business mainstay in California since the early part of the last century. At last official count, in 2021, there were more than 10,000 of them in the state.
A few years ago, the Boston Consulting Group—a global think tank that partners with business leaders to research and report on a wide array of issues that affect society—conducted a study on American gas stations and the impact the advent of electric vehicles (EVs) will have on their continuing operation. The study found that the number of gas stations across the U.S. could decrease by 80% by 2035.
Stations transformed
However, as the study determined, gas stations have been declining significantly since 1978, when legislation governing fuel efficiency standards was enacted. “The rise of EVs is simply the final nail in the [gas stations’] coffin,” noted Justin Rowlatt, chief environmental correspondent for the BBC. “Electric cars are going to send the gas station business into a death spiral over the next two decades.”
One very likely consideration in this regard is the idea of transforming gas stations into electrical charging stations. But studies have shown that the concept is somewhat dubious. “It’s largely impractical,” noted Tomas van Stee, CEO and founder of EnPowered, a global energy innovator. “While some gas stations (particularly those at highway rest stops) will be able to make going fully electric a viable business model, most gas stations won’t. Selling electricity is not like selling gas.”
Charging stations, the plug-in kiosks where EVs can power up, pose another challenge. California currently claims the highest number of them in the country: 80,000 in 2022. But as the experts agree, that’s a fraction of what will be needed to charge every new electric vehicle that will be hitting the roads as the ban takes effect. New national legislation is earmarking $7.5 billion toward building new charging stations, but the uphill struggle of constructing, equipping and operating these stations—especially in rural environments—remains a critical factor in the massive adaptation from gas to electricity.
Economic impact
There’s little disagreement among California state officials and residents that the state’s increasingly critical air pollution numbers are largely caused by gas-powered motor vehicles. In a statement about its new legislation, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) explains what’s at issue.
“Mobile sources are the greatest contributor to emissions of…greenhouse gases (GHG) in California, accounting for about 80% of ozone precursor emissions and approximately 50% of statewide GHG emissions. California suffers some of the worst air pollution in the nation.”What concerns many, however, is the potential impact that such a sweeping new law will have on the California economy and, for that matter, on that of the entire country. Thus, CARB has gone out of its way to justify the ACCII ruling by issuing a Standardized Regulatory Impact Assessment (SRIA) to review some of the areas likely to be affected by the new regulations.
Regulatory expert Dan Bosch, who formerly headed up regulatory policy at the American Action Forum, summarized the CARB economic assessment: “CARB estimates the total cost associated with the rule—including vehicles, home plug purchases, insurance and maintenance—at $289 billion through automotive model year 2040. The average new vehicle purchased will cost about $2,000 more than it would have by model year 2040, if ACCII standards remained in place. CARB expects these costs to be more than offset via benefits totaling $383 billion. More than 80% of these benefits come from savings on gasoline (68%) and savings from reductions in carbon emissions (12%); just 4.3% of the estimated benefits are related to health.”
An equal trade?
Adding even further complexity is the question of whether Californians can be assured that the move to alternatively fueled vehicles will, indeed, reduce carbon emissions.
The vast increase in the number of electric vehicles that laws like California’s will herald begs the question: Are we trading one set of problems for another? For one thing, it’s been suggested that EV battery production can adversely impact the environment. Their batteries consist of materials such as nickel, lithium, cobalt and others, which are energy-intensive to mine. What’s more, EV chargers rely on electricity from power plants, which still use fossil fuels. This could be especially problematic in states like California, where the energy grid is already being pushed to its limit during the hot summer months.
According to an exhaustive study conducted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, however, while the concern is certainly reasonable, it’s not accurate. The study states that, “The greenhouse gas emissions associated with an electric vehicle over its lifetime are typically lower than those from an average gasoline-powered vehicle, even when accounting for manufacturing.”That looming strain on the state’s energy grid is yet another factor in this entire equation. As California gears up to meet the fuel-switch deadline, will there be enough electricity to power all the new EVs? After all, state officials predict that 12.5 million EVs will be on the road by 2035. Those same officials are deflecting this concern, however, and using data to illustrate that California’s electricity grid won’t be severely strained.
But with 15 times more electric cars expected on California’s roads by 2035, the amount of power they consume will grow exponentially. The California Energy Commission says the demand will remain a fraction of all the power used during peak hours, jumping from 1% in 2022 to 5% in 2030 and 10% in 2035.“We’re confident that electricity will meet future demand, and we’re able to plan for it,” stated one commission official.
Full steam ahead
There are strong arguments on both sides of the fuel-switch issue, and California’s experience will become a litmus test for other states across the country that are watching the Golden State’s developments with keen interest.
Across the Atlantic in Norway—where the sale of internal combustion engines will be phased out in 2025, and 80% of new cars are battery powered—people have accepted EVs with enthusiasm, according to a recent story in The New York Times:“
But the air in Oslo, Norway’s capital, is measurably cleaner. The city is also quieter as noisier gasoline and diesel vehicles are scrapped. Oslo’s greenhouse gas emissions have fallen 30 percent since 2009, yet there has not been mass unemployment among gas station workers and the electrical grid has not collapsed.“
Some lawmakers and corporate executives portray the fight against climate change as requiring grim sacrifice. ‘With E.V.s, it’s not like that,’ said Christina Bu, secretary general of the Norwegian E.V. Association, which represents owners. ‘It’s actually something that people embrace.’ ”
Here in California, Newsome left no uncertainty in a speech late last year. “California isn’t waiting anymore,” he said. “Together with the legislature, California is taking the most aggressive action on climate our nation has ever seen. We’re cleaning the air we breathe, holding the big polluters accountable, and ushering in a new era for clean energy. That’s climate action done the California Way—and we’re not only doubling down, we’re just getting started.”